By-elections for NA-260 successfully concluded on 15th July. Candidate of JUI-F managed to secure victory after a closely contested battle with BNP. This by-election was kind of build up for the next general elections and also test of the popularity of the ruling parties. In addition to that the election on the same constituency was controversial in 2013 and therefore conducting largely fair and peaceful election on this constituency was a huge challenge.
On the Election Day, voter turnout was 29% which was a reduction from 41% in 2013 general elections. This is understandable because normally the turnout is low in by-election as people don’t take the same interest in by-elections as they take in general elections.
Engineer Usman Badini of right wing Conservative party, JUI-F, won the election by securing over 44 Thousand votes. Historically JUI-F has always been a strong player on this constituency. Analysis of all elections on this seat from 2002 onwards prove that JUI-F had bagged more votes as compared to any other party. So, victory of JUI-F is not a surprise in any way. In addition to that JUI-F played a master-stroke by choosing an influential electable for this election who used his strength to further increase votes for the party. The victory of JUI-F in this election has established the party as a major player in Balochistan after general elections of 2018. JUI-F has proved that they can go to any extent of political opportunism for securing electoral victory.
JUI-F has proved that they can go to any extent of political opportunism for securing electoral victory
Moreover BNP, a left wing Baloch nationalist party, was the dark horse in this election. Due to its popularity in Nushki and PB-5 it was expected that BNP will give a tough time to JUI-F. This is what happened and BNP candidate was runner up with 37 thousand votes. BNP increased its votes from 25,000 in 2013 elections to 37,000 which is a big success. However the party failed to bring its supporters to the polls especially in PB-5. This election exposed the flaws in the party machinery of BNP which need to be sorted out if BNP wants to translate its popularity in electoral success. Otherwise, this party might face the unpleasant fate of losing elections despite having popular support.
BNP needs to sort weaknesses in its party machinery if it wants to translate its popularity in electoral success
PKMAP, a left leaning Pashtun nationalist party, was defending champion on this seat. However they were already ruled out from winning the election due to the ethnic composition of this constituency which was in contradiction to their political stand. PKMAP candidate only managed to secure 20 thousand votes in this election which was 10 less than the votes secured by the party in 2013 elections. PKMAP was the only party where the party head, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, actively campaigned for the candidate. Despite the campaigning of party chief the vote scored by PKMAP is disappointing. The fewer votes secured by PKMAP not only express the disapproval of performance of party in Balochistan government but also cast doubts on their chances of electoral success in 2018.
Likewise, the Candidate of Federalist Party PPPP secured 4th largest number of votes. Candidate of PPP was a young and inexperienced son of a PPP stalwart. Awarding ticket to an inexperienced youngster cemented the belief that PPPP is a dynastic party. PPP had no chance of winning the election from the outset. However, votes bagged by PPPP indicate that if same family gets the PPPP ticket then it can be a serious contender for elections on provincial constituency of Chagai in 2018.
Fewer votes secured by PKMAP not only express the disapproval of performance of party in Balochistan government but also cast doubts on their chances of electoral success in 2018
Last but not the least is the ruling National Party which is also a Baloch nationalist party. NP didn’t even field a candidate for the sake of face saving and supported the candidate of JUI-F in the elections. Although it’s debatable what role NP played in victory of JUI-F but it’s beyond any doubt that NP would have fared poorly in elections if they had fielded a candidate of their own. The alliance of NP with JUI-F was severely criticized on ideological grounds. NP choose to support a party with contradictory political ideology just to ensure the defeat of its arch rival BNP which has political ideology not different than NP.
Nonetheless, reluctance of NP to field its candidate proves that the party was afraid of gauging public response to their performance. This means that chances of NP to secure electoral successes in next elections are grim.
Likewise, ruling PML-N was also nowhere to be seen in the largest constituency elections. PML-N is planning to again get the government in Balochistan in 2018 but their irrelevance in this election hints that even holding ground in next elections would be an uphill task for them.
Reluctance of NP to field its candidate proves that the party was afraid of gauging public response to their performance