Zubair Ahmed
The Presidential transition period from the administration of James Buchanan to the terms of Abraham Lincoln between 1860 and 1861 was when the U.S split to the Union and the Confederacy also known as “secession winter”. During the last Presidential campaign once again there emerged two main groups in the United States, those in favor of deeper global engagement and those calling for the “America first” retrenchment and questioning the United States over commitment while being underfunded.
An accomplished politician is one who understands psyche, needs, likes and dislikes of his people. The sentiments of the American voters before the 2016 general elections were that they wanted to see America economically strong, politically mature and isolated from the world’s conflicts under the slogan of “Make America great again”. The pre-election catchphrases of the President-elect Donald Trump remain focused on economic development of America, strict immigration roles, anti-Muslim rhetoric and anti-internationalism. Isolationist and domestic policies pushed Trump to victory.
As long as foreign policy is concerned, Trump appears to be oblivious of major challenges America is facing abroad nowadays. The post-cold war American grand strategy of liberal internationalism or belligerent interventionism appears to be in contrast with the general outline of the President-elect’s foreign policy rather it suggest that Trump is totally uninterested in pursuing it. Trump seems ready to bring forward new U.S commitments around the world – to war on terror, to regional security, to trades and finance and to global alliances. It’s alarming that Trump is directing the American foreign policy in a radically different direction and the fact that he is really inconsistent that no one actually knows what he will do. Many from his own party disagree with the President-elect’s foreign policy.
In January 2017 when Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, the immediate confrontations he will face are mostly in the Asia-Pacific. During the tenure of President Barak Obama, American influence in Asia-Pacific was significantly bolstered. Noteworthy aspects of Obama’s policies include deepened U.S ties with Australia, Singapore and Philippine, The presence of U.S troops in the region and the South China Sea talks. However, it is vague now whether the new incoming President will carry on with these polices or not.
Secondly, North Korea is repeatedly conducting nuclear and missile launch tests also issuing threats to the United States and its allies in the region. Meanwhile in Philippine the newly elected President Rodrigo Duterte announces his country’s separation from the U.S alliance declaring China as new strategic partner. China is also mobilizing its military assets and building new islands in the South China Sea. Trump will face how to come up with effective policies that will ensure strategic balance, continued U.S influence in the region and to remain cooperative and competitive with core rival China. The hard goal for Trump is to avoid further deterioration in relations with China.
The Middle East is also one of the prime concerns for Mr. Trump. He not only enraged the Democrats and Arab allies but also his own party members when he stated that Iran, Russia and Assad are playing a positive role in Syria. Trump said, “I do not like Assad at all but Assad is killing ISIL, Russia and Iran are killing ISIL”. In his pre-election campaign, Trump argued against intervention in Syria but suggested cooperation with Russia to fight against ISIL. Many top leadership of his party including his soon-to-be National Security adviser Lt-General (retd) Michael Flynn do not support Mr. Trump’s stand on Syria. According to his book Field of fight, Flynn is of the view that the efforts of Russia in Syria are not against ISIL but instead are aimed at Assad’s enemies. Cohen Eliot, counselor to the former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, “for Assad, Iran and Russia, ISIL is at most a secondary enemy: the real enemy is the Syrian opposition and the Syrian population who have revolted against Assad brutality.”
Mike pence the upcoming vice-president of Trump is also of the firm belief that if Russia continues to support the brutal regime of Assad, the U.S should use its military force to stop it. In general, the Americans believe that Russia support of Assad is not aimed at defeating ISIL but to prevent fall of Assad’s regime by the hands of rebel groups including ones backed by the CIA.
If the new cabinet members are Trump’s top advisors then for sure the U.S foreign policy will not be the same as Trump advocated for during his election campaign because most of his top advisors have greater proclivity towards old post-cold war American policies of aggressiveness and internationalism. For instance, Trump considers U.S invasion of Iraq a huge mistake but top of his advisors supports it. So far we have observed that Trump’s focus during campaign mostly remained on domestic issues and U.S economy instead of foreign policy and also given the fact that Trump has never assumed even a small scale public office before therefore, both logic and research suggest that not only a person like Trump will be very much dependent on the counsel of his advisors but the American foreign policy will also be greatly influenced by them.
Once in office, Trump will have to seriously reconsider his foreign policy. But it will prove to be a very daunting task as the range of positive options is too small while international challenges, specifically Asia-Pacific and Middle East, are too great to ignore. Dealing with China on the issue of South China Sea, America’s support for NATO or America’s response to a major terror event, no matter what, at some point Trump will have to deal with the issues he and his teams do not agree upon. Only then we will know who is in fact forming America’s foreign policies.
Writer is a student of International Relations at Quaid-i- Azam University Islamabad.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article are those of the author and Balochistan Voices not necessarily agrees with them.
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