Ayaz Ahmed
On the other side, Pakistan is concerned about the growing American strategic and military partnership with India, which is expected to increase under the Trump administration. In April 2016, the Obama administration myopically declined to grant $ 430 million to Pakistan for the purchase of eight F-16. What is important to mention here is that Indian lobbies played the central role in inducing the American Congress to block the grand of the stipulated amount to Pakistan.
Since Pakistan has been engrossed in waging a long and expensive war against assorted terrorist and militant groups and is threatened by neighbouring India, the country direly needs advanced aircraft and timely modernization of its existing weaponry in order to make its security effective. It is pertinent to note that Russia removed its arms embargo against Pakistan in 2014. More importantly, the Kremlin has lately agreed to sell four MI-35 helicopters to Pakistan. In the post arms embargo period, Pakistan can also purchase Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia and seek Russian assistance to modernise its existing fighter aircraft.
Pak-Russia Cooperation against Terrorism
Both Pakistan and Russia are facing the threat of terrorism and militancy. Terrorism is a major problem insidiously plaguing Pakistan with losses of nearly $ 117 billion and around 50,000 lives. The emergence of Daesh in Afghanistan currently poses a severe threat to Pakistan’s tribal areas and the peripheries of Russia. In this context, along with China, Pakistan and Russia have recently conducted a series of consultations on how to prevent the possible spillover effects of Daesh. The three countries have demonstrated willingness and seriousness to invite Kabul for next round of talks. Arguably, such an emerging cooperation is likely to prove effectual in eliminating the militancy of Daesh from the region, especially from Afghanistan.
Pakistan shares SCO’s concerns regarding the three evils of terrorism, extremism and separatism. Under the umbrella of the SCO, it would acquire comprehensive counter-terrorism and counter-militancy assistance from the Tashkent-based Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) to stamp out rampaging terrorism, bubbling militancy and disruptive low-intensity insurgency in restive Balochistan. Moreover, coordinative intelligence sharing and joint operation between Pakistan and Russia will greatly help them clamp down the deadly Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) based in Afghanistan.
Pakistan can adopt a two-pronged approach by joining hands with the SCO to ruin drug cultivation in Afghanistan and bust drug cartels operating in the region. With China and Russia, Pakistan may conduct vigorous joint naval anti-narcotics drive in the Arabian Sea against the burgeoning drug smuggling.
Russia has played a significant role in foiling all short-sighted Indian moves to label Pakistan as terrorism. At the BRICS summit held India in October 2016, Indian supremacist Prime Minster Narendra Modi called Pakistan the ‘ mothership of terrorism’ that should be isolated as such. But, while delivering his speech, Russian President Putin adroitly avoided using the word terrorism which signalled his outright rejection of Modi’s Pakistan-bashing. Moreover, when Modi and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani blamed Pakistan for sponsoring regional terrorism during the Heart of Asia conference in December 2016, the Russian representative sternly rejected Afghan and Indian accusations of Pakistan and termed these allegations unjustified and unfounded.
Pak-Russia Cooperation for Afghan Peace
After watching American repeated failures to bring about reconciliation, stability and tranquillity in Afghanistan, Russia has recently demonstrated its willingness to play a role in Afghan peace and security. After the tripartite consultations on Afghan conflict, Pakistan, China and Russia have extended an invitation to the unity government of Afghanistan to participate in the next round of discussion so as to bring serenity in the war-stricken country.
As now Pakistan is a full member of the SCO, it can persuade China and Russia to come forward with their technological know-how and fiscal resources to help Afghanistan benefit from its natural resources and play a bigger role in Afghan reconciliation. When suitable, Pakistan may bank upon the SCO to resolve a plethora of Indian diplomatic missions in Afghanistan, reportedly supporting terrorism and insurgency inside Pakistan.
Challenges to Emerging Pak-Russia Relations
Pakistan and Russia could face some hurdles during the course of improving bilateral relations. India may use pressure tactics or strive to strengthen its ties with Russia to the level so that Moscow does not feel the need of an extra market for its arms sale. Since America is highly apprehensive of Russian naval presence in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, the Trump administration will use backstairs influence and pressure to stop Islamabad from jumping into Russian bandwagon in the region. Washington will capitalise on the International Monetary Funds (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) to prevent Pakistan from fostering its security and economic relations with Russia. The Indo-American bloc could expedite its support to Pakistani-based terrorist and insurgent groups so that they will create instability and uncertainty in Pakistan.
The Way Forward
It is not uncommon that whenever two rivals decide to bury the hatchet for friendly relations, they are likely to face some hurdles in their budding relations. Both Pakistan and Russia should not let their historical legacy, divergent objectives and the designs of India and America create obstacles on the way of bilateral relations. The following points may be helpful in this regard:
Both countries should arrange and facilitate wide-ranging discussion between members of civil, military and economic institutions. Such interactions will build trust, promote transparency and help increase meaningful cooperation on a wide range of issues between the two countries.
Both countries should take the unity government of Afghanistan into confidence and work with Kabul to inhibit the growth of Daesh in Afghanistan. This will help Pakistan and Russia to play an effectual role in the reconciliation process between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government.
Pakistan should provide incentives to Russia so that Russian companies display readiness in working to improve Pakistan’s energy sector, accelerate its industrialisation process, build infrastructure and improve agricultural productivity.
Pakistan should establish a long-term strategic partnership with Russia. Russian expertise in the field of nuclear technology will be of paramount importance for Pakistan to increase the capacity of its production of nuclear energy for civilian use.
Lastly, Pakistan should assure Russia that its partnership with Uncle Sam will not derail its relations with Russia in the foreseeable future.
This is second part of series of articles on this topic. Click here to read the first part.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article are those of the author and Balochistan Voices not necessarily agrees with them.
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